[CW28] Rio 2025 and the Tariffs KAOS
Alright, I have to say, things are getting scary.
Highlights of the week:
BRICS vs U.S.
The U.S. slapped a 50% tariff on copper imports, and markets went full Marvel-mode.
China has unearthed over a billion tonnes of lithium-bearing ore.
Uranium keeps doing uranium things, slowly, but upward.
Rare earths? The magnet war continues, and it’s now officially a global diplomatic incident.
And deep-sea mining may finally be approaching its moment… with a billion-dollar robot shark.
In short, the world’s most critical minerals just got a lot more political and personal.
BRICS, Tariffs, and a Multipolar Moment
The 17th BRICS Summit took place on July 6–7, 2025, in Rio de Janeiro, hosted at the Museum of Tomorrow. Brazil, as this year’s rotating chair, welcomed delegations from all 11 BRICS+ members. President Lula da Silva led the sessions in person, while Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin joined virtually.
The formal agenda focused on global governance reform, critical minerals cooperation, and technological sovereignty. The informal undercurrent? A looming confrontation with the United States and its evolving playbook of tariffs, threats, and resource leverage.
Here’s what went down:
Lula pushed hard for reforms to the UN Security Council and IMF voting rights, framing BRICS as a force for “democratizing” global institutions.
Narendra Modi warned that critical minerals were becoming weapons of economic warfare. He urged the bloc to build secure, non-monopolistic supply chains.
BRICS launched a proposal for a joint Science Repository and signaled intent to shape AI standards outside the OECD/G7 mold.
The New Development Bank (NDB) was promoted as the South’s alternative to Western capital: financing climate, mining, and infrastructure with fewer political strings.
But the real firestorm came from across the Atlantic.
Just days before the summit, Donald Trump issued a direct threat: if BRICS launched any payment platform to challenge the U.S. dollar, retaliatory tariffs of up to 100% would follow. The message was clear: monetary autonomy comes at a cost.
Then, while leaders were still meeting in Rio, the White House dropped a hammer: a 50% tariff on all copper imports, effective August 1.
Copper: A tariff tantrum and a pricing paradox
Trump’s 50% import tax just lit a fuse under copper markets. Is this the real decoupling moment?
On July 11, the U.S. President announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, sending shockwaves through every spreadsheet in the base metals world.
Copper prices spiked 13% in a single day: the largest one-day rally since 1989.
Why such a dramatic move?
Imports were dwarfing domestic production, and with China controlling a hefty chunk of copper smelting, the U.S. needed a headline-grabbing fix.
But there’s a catch: It’ll take decades to ramp up U.S. production capacity. Until then, domestic users (hello, EVs and solar farms) may be stuck with soaring costs.
Meanwhile:
Indonesia’s export ban on copper concentrate just choked Amman Minerals’ operations, wiping out 1.47% of local GDP in Nusa Tenggara Barat. They’re sitting on 200,000 tonnes of idle inventory.
Antofagasta signed a treatment charge deal at… wait for it… $0/ton with Chinese smelters. That’s not a typo. It’s zero. Feedstock is so tight that smelters are begging. (We mentioned it a couple of weeks ago, here.)
Ivanhoe Electric published its PFS for Santa Cruz in Arizona. Verdict? $1.4B NPV and 72kt/year of copper cathode, powered by 70% renewable energy.
This is not just about price anymore. It’s about control.
The copper narrative is shifting from demand to supply sovereignty, and it’s doing so fast.
Rare Earths: The great magnet standoff escalates
Supply chain tensions reach a boiling point, with Siemens and India leading the backlash.
Europe's wind energy giant Siemens Gamesa made a bold (and symbolic) pivot this week: it’s now sourcing magnets from outside China, including JL MAG and Baotou Tianhe, despite the higher price tag and longer lead times.
Why? Because Chinese export delays are stretching delivery schedules from “tight” to “maybe never”.
Implications:
Wind and auto OEMs are now paying a premium just to diversify. That’s how serious the bottleneck has become.
Chinese firms, sensing the heat, are offering “friendly” off-ramps, keeping market share while letting Beijing handle the geopolitical bruises.
India and Australia are moving in tandem. Delhi wants to anchor its National Critical Minerals Mission with rare earths and gallium, while Astron’s Donald project in Victoria just got greenlit as the future No. 4 global REE pit.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan (in classic quiet power fashion) is spending $20 million to ship 15 tonnes per year of gallium, becoming the world’s second-largest supplier overnight. That’s diversification with surgical precision.
If your magnet supply plan still includes “hope China doesn’t tighten again,” it's time to panic.
On the opposite side and in a master move, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) signed a transformative deal with MP Materials, the only upstream rare-earth player in the U.S. Highlights include:
A $400 million DoD equity investment, giving the Pentagon a 15% stake in the company.
Construction of the “10X Facility,” a U.S.-based magnet plant targeting 10,000 t/year capacity by 2028, with the DoD committing to purchase 100% of its output for 10 years, and guaranteeing a $110/kg price floor on NdPr oxide (almost double current Chinese pricing).
An additional $150 million DoD loan to expand separation capabilities at Mountain Pass, plus $1 billion in private support from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.
The market responded with enthusiasm: MP’s stock jumped ~50%, Canaccord doubled its price target (to $55), and Echoes are being heard in Australia (Lynas and Iluka stocks surged too).
One question remains on our side: where are the heavies coming from? (We would love to hear your thoughts, guesses, and comments on it.)
Lithium: Discovery boom, tech bets… and a bit of panic
Is lithium back from the dead, or just having a midlife crisis?
Let’s start with the bombshell: China uncovered 540 million tonnes of lithium ore in Hunan Province. That’s 1.31 million tonnes of lithium oxide, pushing China’s global share to a dominant 16.5%.
Not to be outdone:
Liontown officially launched Australia’s first underground lithium mine at Kathleen Valley. Backed by Tesla and Ford, the mine signals long-term bullishness, despite current low prices.
Lithium Americas is fighting for its life at Thacker Pass. A water rights lawsuit halted construction. Cattle ranchers versus lithium miners? Welcome to the Wild West, 2025 edition.
Sustainable Projects Group is building a lithium carbonate facility in Alberta using direct lithium extraction from geothermal brines, targeting 9,000 tonnes/year by 2026.
McGill and Argonne Labs unveiled groundbreaking membrane and cathode tech. Translation? Lighter, cheaper, cobalt-free lithium-ion batteries with 85% retention after 100 cycles.
If this scales, cathode chemistry could finally catch up with investor hype.
Still, the lithium market is stuck in a pricing purgatory. Prices have dropped over 90% from 2023 peaks, and financing is scarce.
But demand? Still +24% YoY.
Uranium: Suddenly institutional, quietly booming
When Sprott raises $200 million and Yellow Cake corners the spot market, pay attention.
Here’s the uranium trifecta this week:
Sprott raised $200M, sparking a spot market rally and compressing supply. This capital is heading straight into development-stage uranium projects.
Kazakhstan’s South Tortkuduk mine came online: 46,000 tonnes, ISR-tech, $190M investment, and a clear nod to low-emission uranium extraction.
The Pentagon acquired a 15% stake in MP Materials, securing a guaranteed neodymium-praseodymium oxide supply for military magnets. Price floors, offtake agreements, and federal guarantees are all on the table.
Also worth noting:
Uranium is getting swept up in AI infrastructure. Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft are eyeing nuclear PPAs to power data centers.
Prices are up to $79.05/lb, a 10% MoM increase.
Brazil launched a tender for a new uranium enrichment plant, aiming to reduce dependency on Russian centrifuge services.
And yes, Yellow Cake is sitting on 22 million pounds of U3O8. If this were poker, they’re holding aces.
Things you probably missed (but shouldn’t)
Early-stage tech, deep-sea ventures, and tiny breakthroughs with massive upside.
Self-healing cathodes: A new lithium-metal cathode composition (Li₁.₁Fe₀.₆Cl₁.₄) hit >90% capacity retention after 3,000 cycles. That’s a potential game-changer for EV lifespans.
Rain City’s ACCELi pilot extracted lithium from Marcellus brine with 94% purity. Turning wastewater into battery feedstock? Yes, please.
Deep-sea mining goes operational: Orpheus Ocean’s AUV just mapped 5,600-meter depths near the Mariana Trench, targeting polymetallic nodules.
AI servers love copper: 3D-printed copper cold plates now cool 120kW data racks. With AI buildouts booming, copper just found a new market.
Vanadium gets chic: Japan’s Sumitomo deployed vanadium redox flow batteries in its solar farms, ditching lithium for safer, long-duration grid storage.
Takeaways and forward-looking outlook
Copper is now geopolitical.
From tariffs to $0 treatment charges, the global copper market has shifted from oversupply narratives to full-on protectionism.Lithium’s floor is building, and it’s technical.
Tech breakthroughs, North American reshoring, and China’s new discoveries are reshaping the lithium story. Watch for recovery in late 2025, but keep an eye on lawsuit risks.Rare earths are at the center of a diplomatic arms race.
OEMs are diversifying rapidly, China is retaliating selectively, and projects like Australia’s Donald or Greenland’s Tanbreez are becoming politically valuable.Uranium is institutionalizing.
Gone are the days of speculative juniors. Now it’s banks, defense departments, and hyperscalers driving capital flow. The next supply crunch will be driven by non-utilities.What to watch next week:
EU Battery Passport trilogue: could reorder supply chains overnight.
U.S. Section 301 tariff updates: expect copper and nickel headlines.
Quad meeting (India–Australia–Japan–U.S.): potential for an HREE processing hub in Visakhapatnam.
And finally, the three big questions we should be asking:
Is the U.S. copper tariff the beginning of a reshoring supercycle, or a short-term market distortion?
Are OEMs finally serious about securing non-Chinese REE supply, or are they still window-shopping?
Will AI and data centers create a new uranium demand baseline beyond utilities?
Stay ahead with the Critical Minerals Journal — where insight meets impact.
Wow, this really shows how critical minerals are the new frontlines in global power plays. The copper tariff hitting like a bomb, China’s massive lithium find, rare earths turning into a diplomatic tug-of-war — it’s all about who controls what now. Deep-sea mining and AI demand just add more layers.