[CW24] Markets look forward; supply chains look backwards. This week, the two finally agreed on the same direction — straight into the bottleneck
Dear CMJ community, if you blinked this week, you probably missed a country banning lithium exports, a mega-deal in copper, a potential international minerals truce brokered with geopolitical implications, and yes, a $1 billion antimony recycling investment in Indiana (of all places).
Luckily for us, the critical minerals’ importance and relevance are just becoming more and more clear.
Like an auctioneer hyped on espresso and policy risk, global headlines fired off a rapid-fire series of signals we can’t afford to ignore.
This wasn’t just another week of commodity chatter. It was a manifesto: secure your offtakes, pick your midstream horse, and maybe, just maybe, start paying attention to rubidium.
Let’s dive in.
Chapter 1: the Critical Minerals update
Executive summary for those of us with no time to lose (0.5-minute scan)
Reinforcing the message: “European OEMs admit they have <6 weeks NdFeB buffer” What are you doing about it?
Midstream strikes back: People are now realizing that processing is the bottleneck
We’ve been saying this for months, but it seems it has to “hurt” before industries finally “see” it, doesn’t it?
Forget ore grades for a second, this week was all about processing infrastructure.
Talon Metals is converting a coal site in North Dakota into a $115M critical minerals processing plant. Tesla’s name was quietly dropped. Midstream, meet mainstream.
U.S. Critical Materials & Idaho National Lab are building a rare earth pilot plant in Montana. Just 1–2 tons/day capacity, but the political signal is loud: "We want our own magnets. Yesterday."
Standard Lithium produced battery-quality lithium sulfide at low temperature. Bonus: it came from brine-derived lithium, making it a darling for next-gen solid-state batteries.
Nouveau Monde secured $1B+ in letters for graphite battery anode facilities in Canada. That’s not a typo — this is among the largest debt raises in the battery materials game.
Brazil is deploying $900 million across 56 new critical mineral projects. They’re not playing small-ball either — $8.9 billion in downstream investment is expected.
This week’s dominant theme among OEMs was clear: “Where do you process it?”, “Is there a pilot plant?”, and “How quickly can you scale up processing?” The days of asking “Where do you mine it?” are clearly behind us.
Midstream is the new gold.The copper crescendo: Supply chains, sovereigns, and suitors
Copper is finally getting the investor spotlight it deserves, with its Futures strongly recovering from April’s hiccup.
Note: Copper Futures are up ~18% YTD (impressive!)
Copper’s main news of the week:
In Arizona, a federal judge allowed Resolution Copper to advance, inching closer to the contentious land swap tied to Oak Flat. It’s a symbolic win — part legal saga, part supply urgency. The catch? Environmental and tribal concerns are far from resolved.
Zambia went full-court press, wooing EV makers to co-locate component plants next to its mines. This is a textbook example of what the IEA calls “value-chain anchoring.” If it works, Zambia becomes southern Africa’s battery capital.
Cascadia Minerals & Granite Creek merger underscores the North American juniors’ race to scale. Their combined Yukon assets could feed into the continent’s copper-gold thirst, assuming the usual permitting quicksand doesn’t apply.
Northstar Gold’s Ontario target claims up to 18% copper in its new High-Grade Cam Zone. That’s not a typo — this could be one of Canada’s juiciest copper veins, and they’re exploring “surgical mining” to get it out with surgical ESG optics.
Copper ETFs are in vogue again. Retail flow is following the LME inventory cliff (down 75%) and the macro — electrification, AI infrastructure, and data centers — now tether copper to growth. Welcome to the new "tech metal."
Critical minerals go global: From Kazakhstan to Indiana
This week’s central message? Mineral diplomacy is the new foreign policy.
India inked partnerships with five Central Asian nations to secure REE access, breaking China's grip. The “NCMM” (National Critical Mineral Mission) isn't just a policy. It’s becoming a cornerstone of India’s industrial policy and clean-tech future.
Canada Nickel’s Crawford project got the Ontario government’s VIP stamp, complete with Indigenous partnership plans and access to a $500 million processing fund.
Argentina & France signed a critical minerals + nuclear pact, marrying lithium ambitions with France’s nuclear dominance. The goal: uranium, copper, and mutual supply chain security.
U.S.–Ukraine sealed a “security-for-resources” agreement, linking defense funding to Ukraine’s mineral base. Think of it as Marshall Plan 2.0—with cobalt instead of coal.
Kazakhstan–U.S. dialogues hinted at joint supply chain initiatives, while the DRC–Rwanda–U.S. triangle is toying with a peace-through-minerals framework.
By the looks of it, everyone wants to be less like China and more like Canada with a shovel and an ESG badge.
The rare earth soap opera continues
China’s REE export clampdown hit full force this week, with magnet shortages rippling across sectors:
Stellantis says they’re “fine for June”, but Ford isn’t. Its CEO called the supply “hand-to-mouth,” and confirmed factory stoppages. Mercedes and BMW are no different (desperately exploring options for short-term supply).
Magnet prices are ballooning, pushing OEMs to consider downgrading to less efficient motors or “relocalizing” in China (ironic, yes).
MP Materials is flirting with a Saudi joint venture, and the U.S. may invoke the Defense Production Act to fund rare earth capacity directly.
Kazakhstan’s Karagandy region is quietly emerging as a white knight, offering medium-heavy REEs with friendlier geopolitics than Myanmar or China.
I’m sure you´ve heard of the recent deal between the U.S. and China.
In a nutshell, U.S. companies will receive the REE/permanent magnets, while China will have its students accepted into U.S. universities.
Sounds good, right? There is just one (or two) catches:
The agreement is yet to be signed by both presidents, and in the meantime, guess what? Escalation in the war between Iran and Israel (we’ll touch on that tragedy further with our takes on the impacts on Critical Minerals).
China kept the restrictions on REE/permanent magnets for military use — great move on their side, we need to see the U.S.’s next move. Remember, there is no worse thing for military use than a shortage of supplies.
Uranium: Silicon Valley’s unlikely crush
The week’s biggest flex? Meta’s 20-year power deal with a U.S. nuclear plant. (Were you expecting that?).
The Clinton plant in Illinois will supply 1.1GW of carbon-free electricity. Meta will use it for — you guessed it — AI workloads.
New Mexico and Wyoming accelerated uranium permits, and NexGen scored a stunning $102m raise for its Canadian uranium base.
The Nordic uranium revival is gaining traction, with Aura Energy’s Swedish deposits eyeing commercial viability by 2032.
Uranium isn’t just for utilities anymore. It’s showing up in data center decarbonization, and that unlocks a whole new demand curve.
Chapter 2: Iran–Israel air‑and‑missile war
A brief timeline of the ongoing tragedy
June 12:
Israel launches Operation Rising Lion, hitting >200 Iranian sites incl. Natanz and Fordo enrichment plants
Uranium market prices spike intraday; airlines and insurers reroute cargo via Cape of Good Hope
June 13:
Iranian missile volley damages Haifa refinery and disrupts port ops
Temporary suspension of copper and sulphuric‑acid imports through Haifa used by Israeli metallurgical plants
June 14-15:
Houthis declare naval blockade of Haifa; Greece & UK advise ships to avoid Hormuz
Charter rates +22 % on Asia‑to‑Med bulk routes; critical‑mineral concentrates from Africa now delayed 7‑10 days
Big picture summary
The air-and-missile war has already struck Iranian nuclear sites, Israeli energy infrastructure, and regional shipping lanes (generating widespread impact).
Critical‑mineral markets are exposed to it through three main channels: (i) Iran’s sizeable in‑ground resources (copper, uranium, lithium and emerging rare‑earth capacity); (ii) Israel’s role in downstream technology and the eastern Mediterranean shipping gateway; and (iii) chokepoints in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea that handle concentrates, reagents and finished metals.
Major geopolitical moves are happening as we speak, and we would rather not comment on that, but encourage you to follow it closely – allies will step in to hopefully prevent it from escalating further.
Forward looking implications
Closing Remarks
Things you probably missed (but shouldn’t)
Science and engineering updates with massive implications:
Rubidium from brine breakthrough: China’s salt-lake trick could cut global rubidium dependence on Canada and power atomic clock tech.
PNNL cracked a new cathode chemistry, helping batteries shrug off 1,000+ cycles while slashing costs. Translation: cheaper EVs, sooner.
Zinc-iodine batteries from the University of Adelaide posted 99.8% retention over 500 cycles—yes, zinc may challenge lithium for grid storage.
Wiltson Energy’s lithium battery survived -40°F on Everest for 12 days. Why does that matter? Military, telecom, and cold-climate EVs.
Vanadium-lithium oxides are getting AI-optimized. Think 10-minute charges and 10,000-cycle batteries. Real-world EVs just got interesting.
Labs are delivering. Upstream is geopolitics. We're entering the decade where chemistry beats geology (and again, Midstream is the bottleneck).
Takeaways
Midstream is now center stage. The smartest capital in the room isn’t chasing the next lithium find; it’s building the plants that turn that lithium into profit.
Copper’s rally isn’t just macro — it’s micro pain + ESG premium. Look for continued upside as global supply tightens.
Mineral alliances are reshaping global diplomacy. The next G7 may feature nickel deals and cobalt corridors.
REE bottlenecks are real, and the EV sector is officially in a bind. Watch for secondary magnet materials and substitutes (ceramics, anyone?).
Uranium is institutionalizing. AI and cloud giants may drive the next uranium bull run, not just governments.
Geopolitics is more important than ever.
Stay ahead with Critical Minerals Journal — where insight meets impact.
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