[CW18] U.S.-Ukraine pact; New EU Policy guideline on Critical Minerals; and Brazil scores a points on the REE race
Needless to say, a lot is going on in Critical Minerals, right?!
Today’s edition will present two chapters:
U.S.-Ukraine agreement
On the threshold of the 2025 G7 Summit in Italy, the United States and Ukraine concluded a decade-long bilateral security agreement that redefines their strategic partnership — with ramifications far beyond the battlefield.
Much more than a pledge of military aid, this pact signals a new phase of geopolitical alignment, economic cooperation, and mutual leverage. We’ll explore the agreement's architecture, its military and political intent, and — perhaps most importantly — what the United States receives in return, including preferred access to Ukraine’s critical minerals
Broader Critical Minerals highlights
Focusing on the ecosystem, spotlighting new EU frameworks, Brazil's rising prominence, cutting-edge extraction breakthroughs, and the shifting boardroom dynamics of major mining firms.
These developments paint a picture of a world reconfiguring itself around supply chain resilience, post-conflict reconstruction, and strategic sovereignty.
Chapter 1: U.S.-Ukraine deal
Agreement highlights
Duration and Essence
Term: 10 years
Nature: Non-binding but institutionalized framework of military, intelligence, economic, and civil cooperation
Purpose: To deter further Russian aggression and build Ukrainian resilience without requiring NATO membership
It complements similar bilateral deals Kyiv has signed with Germany, the UK, France, and Italy, and aims to ensure continuity of U.S. support across administrations.
The Heart of the Deal: A 10-Year Commitment
The agreement, signed in early May 2025, does not amount to a mutual defense treaty in the mold of NATO’s Article 5 guarantees. Instead, it represents a comprehensive framework for U.S. support that encompasses:
Ongoing military assistance
Training and modernization of Ukraine’s armed forces
Cybersecurity and intelligence cooperation
Support for economic and democratic resilience
In short, it institutionalizes U.S. support to Ukraine in a ‘blueprint’.
It complements the U.S. Congress' earlier passage of a $60 billion military and economic aid package and aligns Washington with over 30 bilateral agreements already signed between Ukraine and G7 or NATO-aligned states.
Military & Security Dimensions
At the core of the agreement lies a robust defense cooperation plan, aimed at:
Modernizing Ukraine’s Armed Forces
Transitioning to NATO-standard weapons and training
Strengthening air defense, artillery, and drone warfare capabilities
Expanding interoperability with U.S. and NATO forces
Cyber and Intelligence Sharing
Establishing secure communication channels
Cooperating on counterintelligence and hybrid warfare
Military Infrastructure Support
Rebuilding damaged bases and logistics networks
Facilitating joint exercises and battlefield innovation
Despite its strength, the pact does not compel U.S. forces to enter Ukraine in the event of a new Russian offensive – a carefully calibrated clause to avoid crossing red lines with Moscow.
Economic, Institutional & Governance Cooperation
This isn’t just a military arrangement. It also includes a roadmap for Ukraine’s civil reconstruction and democratic reform, with U.S. technical and financial assistance pledged for:
Rebuilding war-torn infrastructure
Energy system restoration and grid security
Judicial and anti-corruption reforms
Civil society strengthening
To ensure accountability, aid disbursement is tied to clear performance benchmarks in governance and public sector transparency. Washington expects Kyiv to continue implementing its ambitious anti-corruption agenda, which is seen as vital for Ukraine’s candidacy in EU accession talks as well.
Ukraine’s reaction
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the pact as a "strategic bridge" toward NATO membership and full Euro-Atlantic integration.
He emphasized the agreement’s role in both war-time defense and post-war transformation.
And now, the big question: what the U.S. gains in return?
The answer is simple and we all know it (Critical Minerals) — but here is a more in-depth breakdown:
1. Critical Minerals access as a strategic ‘dividend’ (very clever)
Perhaps the most significant non-military return is Ukraine’s emerging role as a partner in clean energy supply chains:
Ukraine’s Mineral Potential:
Lithium for EV batteries
Titanium for aerospace and defense
Graphite for battery anodes
Rare Earths for permanent magnets
What Was Agreed:
Ukraine becomes a priority supplier for U.S. decoupling from Chinese-dominated supply chains – critical minerals ‘cooperation’
U.S. agencies (DFC, USAID) are preparing investment tools for exploration and processing
This means American companies could secure privileged access to Ukraine’s strategic deposits, supporting both U.S. economic security and energy transition goals.
2. Strategic Buffer Against Russia
Ukraine serves as a geopolitical shield, reducing pressure on NATO’s eastern flank
Enables U.S. to weaken Russian capabilities without direct military involvement
Strengthens NATO by integrating Ukrainian defense standards without full membership
3. Battlefield Intelligence & Innovation
Access to real-time warzone testing of systems like Patriot missiles and drones
Data and insight from Ukraine’s cyber defense and electronic warfare
Feedback loop helps improve U.S. defense doctrine and procurement
4. Economic & Industrial Return
Boost to U.S. defense contractors and logistics firms
New markets for U.S. energy and infrastructure companies in Ukraine’s rebuilding phase
Reinforcement of the transatlantic trade and investment framework
5. Global Credibility and Soft Power
Reaffirms U.S. leadership in upholding international norms
Strengthens America’s diplomatic credibility in Asia and Latin America
Shows that the U.S. can still shape postwar reconstruction and alliance-building without boots on the ground
What comes next: Implications and Outlook
1. Formalizing the Critical Minerals Partnership
Expect MOUs and joint ventures in the coming months
U.S. support agencies will expand exploration funding and private sector partnerships
Ukraine may become a cornerstone of Western mineral supply chains
2. Pressure on Europe to Match Commitments
EU and G7 nations expected to propose additional resource deals with Ukraine
Brussels may align this effort with its Critical Raw Materials Act and Ukraine’s EU candidacy
3. Risks to U.S. Continuity and Congressional Backing
The deal is non-binding, making it vulnerable to political shifts in Washington
Aid is subject to future appropriations — contingent on political consensus
4. Ukraine's Strategic Leverage
Ukraine positions itself as both a security recipient and resource provider
Leverages mineral wealth and battlefield expertise to deepen Western alignment
Takeaways
The U.S.-Ukraine security agreement marks a generational recalibration of American alliance-building.
It blends hard power with strategic economics.
It elevates a non-NATO country into a near-NATO partner.
It helps the U.S. shape the postwar European order and secure critical inputs for its clean energy future.
In doing so, it charts a new model for modern diplomacy — one where military commitment, economic opportunity, and geopolitical design converge.
Defense: 10-year commitment, NATO-standard modernization, U.S. weapons and training
Governance: Judicial reform, transparency, democratic accountability benchmarks
Economic Return: Contracts for U.S. defense and infrastructure firms
Critical Minerals: Framework for future U.S. access to Ukraine’s lithium, REEs, and titanium
Strategic Value: Keeps Russia in check, strengthens NATO, protects U.S. global leadership
Risks: Political reversibility in the U.S., fragile Congressional support, Russian escalation
Chapter 2: Critical Minerals highlights
New EU Policy guideline on Critical Minerals (delivered by the VECTOR Project)
Since the adoption of and cornerstone regulation set by the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) in 2023, several programs and initiatives have taken place to better address the surging needs.
These past weeks the VECTOR project launched a new guidance on Critical Minerals to support the CRMA and give more direct insights. (link to the full material)
Here are its highlights:
A. Regulatory & Institutional
Develop a dedicated EU taxonomy for mining to clarify sustainable practices.
Create "one-stop-shop" permitting systems with clear timelines (24 months for extraction, 12 for processing).
Ensure mandatory and transparent Environmental and Social Impact Assessments (ESIAs).
B. Social Framework
Promote inclusive stakeholder engagement via collaborative governance models.
Define standardized processes for community benefit-sharing, grievance mechanisms, and transparency in technical studies.
Ensure social license to operate throughout the project lifecycle.
C. Innovation & Circular Economy
Boost R&D in non-invasive, low-impact mining technologies.
Support CRM recycling and recovery from waste streams.
Incentivize projects adopting circular economy principles.
D. International Alignment
Harmonize EU policy with frameworks such as:
UN Framework Classification (UNFC)
UN Resource Management System (UNRMS)
CRIRSCO reporting standards
Integrate ESG reporting systems like GRI, SASB, TCFD, ESRS, and ISSB into legislation.
Embrace double materiality (considering both financial and societal impacts).
Brazil scores a point on the REE race
Aclara Resources, with support from federal and state authorities, has officially inaugurated its semi-industrial pilot plant for its Carina project in Brazil — the only known Ion-Absorption Clay (IAC) project with a pilot operation.
The company uses its proprietary process, called Circular Mineral Harvesting, that it claims eliminates blasting, crushing, and tailings dams. The plant recycles over 95% of water and 99% of reagents and enables the reforestation of mined areas.
Too good to be true? Yes, but indeed the IAC enable a much cleaner extraction processing, becoming the best bet for a clean energy transition.
Brazil is stockpiling great REE projects — curious to see how many will make it through this race. Here are just a few:
Serra Verde (in operation since H1 2024): IAC
Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE): IAC + Hard rock + Monazite sands
Meteoric Resources: IAC
Viridis Mining: IAC
I’m sure by now you got the trend: IAC boom in Brazil!
Keeping both eyes open for Brazilian projects, extremely promising.
Lab Coats vs. Pickaxes: Science Strikes Back
While governments flexed their legislative muscles, scientists in lab coats quietly stole the show. Two jaw-dropping breakthroughs could rewrite the rules of extraction entirely:
Lithium Extraction, Reinvented
At Penn State, researchers developed an acid-free lithium extraction method that delivers 99% efficiency in minutes. No acid baths, no toxic tailings—just sodium hydroxide and some good ol’ chemistry. This could unlock lithium from low-grade clays and ores once considered worthless. The phrase “game-changer” gets thrown around a lot. Here, it might be an understatement.Rare Earth Separation with Artificial Membranes
Over in Texas, a team from UT Austin unveiled a bio-inspired membrane technology that selectively isolates REEs with minimal waste. This means greener sourcing from both natural reserves and e-waste. Translation: we might finally get rare earths without needing rare environmental disasters.
These aren’t just academic wins — they're potential billion-dollar detours from current supply chains. And they’re coming just in time.
Shifts in the Boardroom and Battlefield
Let’s talk corporate. American Rare Earths made waves by bringing in mining veteran Brian Arkell and finance guru Megan McPherson. Their Halleck Creek project in Wyoming is now not just massive — it’s also got leadership that can actually take it somewhere. Smart move, considering the U.S. still imports the vast majority of its REEs.
5E Advanced Materials isn’t sitting quietly either. The company will headline next week’s Critical Minerals Summit to showcase its Boron Americas Complex — now labeled as Critical Infrastructure. Boron may not be sexy, but it’s essential for everything from magnets to missiles.
And speaking of magnets, Patriot Battery Metals gave a bullish update on its lithium bonanza in Quebec: over 140 million tonnes combined (indicated + inferred). If you're wondering what powers Canada’s optimism — it’s this.
Sandvik, Seabeds, and Strategic Sovereignty
Sandvik scored a $100 million win supplying electric mining gear to South32’s Hermosa project in Arizona. It’s not just about digging deeper — it’s about digging smarter. This order, the largest of its kind, signals a shift toward electric, automated mining systems that align with ESG mandates and, incidentally, make diesel-guzzling rigs look prehistoric.
And then there's ABTC, the American Battery Technology Company. Backed by a cool $900 million Letter of Interest from the EXIM Bank, their Nevada lithium project just became one of the most watched in the U.S. domestic supply chain. It aims to churn out 30,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide per year — a number that would make even Chile raise an eyebrow.
Taking a peek at the market
Looking Ahead
Will Ukraine become a core supplier of REEs and lithium to the West?
MOUs and investments will reveal intent and urgencyCan the U.S. sustain bipartisan support for the Ukraine pact beyond 2025?
Election cycles and Congressional dynamics hold the keyWill Brazil deliver on its clean REE promises?
Pilot successes need scaling and ESG scrutinyAre science-driven methods ready for industrial adoption?
Watch for commercialization announcements by 2026What’s Europe’s next move?
Expect EU partnerships to proliferate under the CRMA framework — especially if U.S. mining diplomacy gains traction
Stay ahead with Critical Minerals Journal — where insight meets impact.
I was looking forward to you writing about the UKR-US deal. The agreement will now be formalized through commercial contracts through the Reconstruction Investment Fund. Written extensively about the terms it may interest you (from an investment angle)