[CW13] Salton Sea’s $540B Lithium Jackpot; Texas Goes Rare Earth Dubai; India Eyes Chile; AI Finds Cobalt; Greenland’s $4.4T Question; Argentina’s Triangle Deal; Tech, Power & the Race to Dig Smarter
Lithium, Algorithms, and the Rise of Mineral Power Plays
This week, the critical minerals world ditched the shovel and went full throttle.
A $540 billion lithium jackpot emerged beneath the California desert, India made a $600 million play for global battery supremacy, and a startup in Australia showed us that mineral discovery may no longer be about where you dig — but how smart your software is.
From Texas rare earths to Argentine lithium deals and Arctic ambition in Greenland, the message is clear: The scramble for mineral independence is no longer hypothetical. It’s here, it’s geopolitical, and it’s backed by a lot more than ambition — we’re talking billions in public and private bets.
Let’s dig in (smartly, and sustainably, of course).
1. Salton Sea: America’s $540 Billion Answer to China’s Lithium Grip
Let’s start with the showstopper.
This week, researchers backed by the U.S. Department of Energy confirmed an eye-watering 18 million tons of lithium lurking beneath the Salton Sea in California. Valued at $540 billion, this discovery alone could power 382 million electric vehicles. That’s more than every car on the road in the U.S. — and then some.
Governor Gavin Newsom wasn’t shy, dubbing the region the “Saudi Arabia of lithium.” And with good reason. The extraction method, based on geothermal brine, is being touted as cleaner than traditional hard rock or brine evaporation methods. If done right, this could set a new standard for environmentally responsible lithium production.
This is more than a mine. It’s a chance for the U.S. to end its dependence on Chinese lithium. But beware the fine print — geothermal extraction still raises water use and ecological impact concerns. The opportunity is enormous, but so are the regulatory hurdles and public scrutiny.
2. Round Top Mountain: Texas Wants to Be the Dubai of Rare Earths
While California takes aim at lithium, Texas is going full-spectrum.
The Round Top Mountain project, led by USA Rare Earth and Texas Mineral Resources Corp, has announced it contains 16 of the 17 rare earths listed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The goal? To supply nearly half of America’s critical mineral needs.
Estimated economic impact: $1.56 billion over 20 years.
More importantly, this isn’t a "dig and ship to China" play. Round Top is being developed with domestic processing and environmentally responsible mining methods, addressing a core vulnerability in America’s supply chain strategy: refining.
Round Top is the rare earth project to watch in the U.S. It’s local, diverse, and politically aligned with both national security and clean tech agendas. If they execute, this could become the cornerstone of U.S. mineral independence.
3. Argentina’s Lithium Triangle: American Battery Materials Goes Shopping
While the U.S. shores up supply at home, American Battery Materials (OTC PINK:BLTH) is thinking globally.
They’ve signed a non-binding Letter of Intent with China’s XTC Lithium Limited to acquire up to 50% of the Carachi Lithium Project in Argentina’s Catamarca Province — a jewel of the Lithium Triangle.
Though still subject to regulatory approval and financing, this is a classic upstream bet on a resource that shows no signs of cooling. Lithium remains the heart of the energy transition, and Carachi sits in one of the most lithium-rich zones on Earth.
Partnerships like this are about more than geology — they’re about geopolitical positioning. With China already deeply embedded in South American lithium, the U.S. (even via private firms) is signaling it wants a seat at the table.
4. India’s $600M Stake in Lithium: The Sleeping Giant Wakes Up
While Western economies debate permitting timelines, India is buying its way into the future.
This week, four state-owned Indian enterprises — including Coal India and ONGC Videsh — began talks to acquire a 20% stake in two lithium projects from SQM, valued at around $600 million.
It’s a strategic strike. India’s EV and grid-scale battery ambitions are surging, but its lithium supply is minimal. By investing directly in upstream assets abroad, India is ensuring its battery revolution isn’t hostage to market volatility or geopolitical risk.
Strategic Insight:
India is no longer waiting to be invited to the table. It’s building its own. Investors should watch for follow-on deals and policy shifts as the country crafts a full-spectrum battery supply chain strategy.
5. AI Finds Copper, Cobalt, and Tin in Australia — and Investors Should Take Note
Forget Indiana Jones. Meet Earth AI.
The Australian mining startup made headlines this week by discovering previously overlooked deposits of copper, cobalt, tin, and other critical minerals in New South Wales and the Northern Territory — not by prospecting, but by processing data.
Using proprietary AI algorithms, Earth AI analyzes geological records to pinpoint likely deposit zones — and then drills to prove it. Yes, they built their own rigs too. Skeptical investors once doubted them. They’re not laughing anymore.
They may have been one of the first to deploy AI in mineral exploration — an early mover with real traction — but others are following fast. From junior explorers to full-scale developers and operators, the industry is beginning to embrace the same digital frontier.
This could mark a turning point in how we explore for minerals. AI reduces time, cost, and uncertainty. For institutional investors and governments looking to build diversified mineral portfolios quickly, expect more dollars to flow into geotech startups like Earth AI.
6. Greenland: Geopolitics, Trillions in REEs, and the Next Arctic Power Play
Greenland’s mineral wealth is estimated at a staggering $4.4 trillion, and this week, it made geopolitical waves AGAIN.
With the U.S. government under VP J.D. Vance reportedly exploring options to purchase or annex the territory (yes, really), the Arctic island is becoming a high-stakes chessboard. Rare earths, crucial for EVs and military systems, are the prize. China currently controls ~70% of global REE output, making Greenland's reserves a strategic asset.
But mining here won’t be easy. Environmental rules, public skepticism, and logistical nightmares all stand in the way.
Key Takeaways
The U.S. is waking up to its mineral vulnerabilities — and moving from rhetoric to resource strategy.
India is going global fast, and its public sector is flush with cash for mineral deals. Expect follow-through.
Tech is changing the rules of mineral discovery. Earth AI’s model could become a playbook.
Strategic partnerships matter more than ever. Whether it’s Argentina, Greenland, or Texas — who you team up with determines your access and risk exposure.
Environmental credentials will separate winners from noise. From California’s brine to AI-led discoveries, ESG is now a gatekeeper, not a side note.
Market overview
Sharp reminder this week — not even critical minerals can dodge the sting of inflation and the shadow of a recession.
Last week we mentioned to expect volatility and opportunity; perhaps it came faster than anticipated?
Looking Ahead: What to watch in the upcoming weeks
Will California announce regulatory fast-tracks or community engagement plans for Salton Sea extraction?
Does India close the SQM deal — or are more lithium plays coming?
More and more usage of AI in exploration, potentially leading to a boom in new project discoveries?
Any movement on processing infrastructure in the U.S. or EU?
Is the U.S.-Greenland flirtation a PR exercise or something more concrete?
And finally, the question for your boardroom:
Are you investing in rocks — or in the systems, tech, and nations that know how to extract value from them?
Stay ahead with Critical Minerals Journal — where insight meets impact.